Monday 29 September 2014

Teddy Bridgewater's debut start was better than almost all other recent first-round QBs

Week 4’s Sunday afternoon games didn’t do much to provide clarity as to who the “good” and “bad” teams are a quarter of the way through the 2014 season. Heading into the primetime contest between Dallas and New Orleans, 11 of the NFC’s 16 teams were .500 or worse, a mark that’s matched by 10 of the AFC’s 16 squads.
While there’s plenty that we don’t know, here are five things we do after spending seven hours in front of the Red Zone Channel on Sunday afternoon.

1) Teddy Bridgewater’s first NFL start was pretty impressive.

(AP Photo/Jim Mone)
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(AP Photo/Jim Mone)
Thanks to an injury to starter Matt Cassel, Minnesota’s plan to keep the final first-round pick of the 2014 draft on the bench this season was foiled, with Bridgewater making his first NFL start against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 4.
Until he left the game in the fourth quarter with an ankle injury, all was going swimmingly for a guy who was looked at as a potential first overall pick just a few months before the draft in May.
Bridgewater became only the second quarterback drafted in the first round since 2011 to lead his team to a win in his first start. Beyond that honor, his stats certainly put him near the top of the other ten first-rounder debuts in that timeframe.
In addition to completing 19 of 30 passes for 317 yards and zero touchdowns or interceptions in Minnesota’s 41-28 win over Atlanta, Bridgewater ran for a 13-yard touchdown in the second quarter. Judging from the list of performances from this peers, that’s probably good enough to rank third among the top debuts from first-rounders since 2011.
1. Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins
19-26 320 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 9 carries for 42 yards rushing (2012, Week 1, 40-32 win over Saints)

2. Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers

24-37 422 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT (2011, Week 1, 28-21 loss to Cardinals)
3. Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings
19-30 317 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INT, 5 carries for 27 yards and 1 TD (2014, Week 4, 41-28 win over Falcons)
4. Jake Locker, Tennessee Titans
23-34 236 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT (2012, his second year, Week 1, 34-13 loss to Patriots)
5. EJ Manuel, Buffalo Bills
18-27 150 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT (2013, Week 1, 23-21 loss to Patriots)
6. Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars
29-37 253 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT (2014, Week 4, 33-14 loss to Chargers)
7. Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts
23-45 309 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT (2012, Week 1, 41-21 loss to Bears)
8. Blaine Gabbert, Jacksonville Jaguars
12-21 139 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT (2011, Week 3, 16-10 loss to Panthers)
9. Christian Ponder, Minnesota Vikings
13-32 219 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT (2011, Week 7, 33-27 loss to Packers)
10. Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins
20-36 219 yards, 0 TD, 3 INT (2012, Week 1, 30-10 loss to Texans)
11. Brandon Weeden, Cleveland Browns
12-35 118 yards, 0 TD, 4 INT (2012, Week 1 17-16 loss to Eagles)

2) It’s not a good time to be a second-year starting QB in the AFC East

(Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports)
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(Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports)
Heading into Week 4, Miami Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill was the AFC East quarterback whose job was most in jeopardy, with reports coming out during the week that head coach Joe Philbin wasn’t even sure he’d start against the Raiders.
After assembling his best game of the season in a 38-10 win in London, Tannehill seems to be off the hot seat for now. The same can’t be said for Buffalo’s EJ Manuel or the New York Jets’ Geno Smith.
What exactly do you do if you’re Doug Marrone or Rex Ryan?
In the case of Marrone and the 2-2 Bills, the play of their 2013 first-round pick probably isn’t enough to turn the offense over to recent free agent signee Kyle Orton, but Manuel just hasn’t made the improvement the team needs from him in his second year.
Manuel threw two critical interceptions in his team’s 23-17 loss to the Houston Texans, the first coming on an 80-yard pick six by J.J. Watt followed by another on the team’s final drive to seal the Houston win. While his offensive line didn’t provide much help, Manuel was inaccurate, connecting on just 21 of 44 pass attempts and averaging just over five yards per pass on the ones he did complete.
He’ll face the Detroit Lions and their surprisingly effective secondary next week, where he’ll hope to fare better than Smith did Sunday in the Jets’ 24-17 loss to Detroit.
Smith was greeted by chants from home fans clamoring for backup Michael Vick after he struggled to move the offense in the first half and then followed an overthrown pass that resulted in an interception with a fumble on back to back fourth quarter drives.
Smith’s teammates certainly seem to have his back, even after he cursed out a heckling fan while heading off the field. Rex Ryan immediately committed to Smith after the game as his starter, but at 1-3, Ryan might not be able to stomach the young quarterback’s struggles much longer if he hopes to put together the kind of season that will ensure his own return next season.
Both Manuel and Smith were drafted with the goal of both becoming longterm answers at a position that has been anything but stable for both teams in recent history. But it’s a very tricky calculation in determining what might be growing pains and what could be a realization for a coaching staff that their guy might not end up being a very good NFL quarterback.
It still seems too soon to make that evaluation in either case. Both have shown flashes that they could at least be moderately decent starters at some point but neither has demonstrated the ability to do it on any consistent level yet.
If more performances like Sunday’s continue to pile up, both Marrone and Ryan are going to have to wonder if the breakthroughs they’re waiting for from their young QBs just might never actually be coming.

3) Tampa Bay’s bounceback win was certainly unexpected, but not unprecedented

(Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports)
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(Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports)
Considering the way the Tampa Bay Buccaneers played in their 56-14 loss to the Atlanta Falcons ten days ago, it wasn’t that hard to imagine that team not winning a game until November or perhaps even the entire season.
As I wrote after that game, they were absolutely awful, with that 42-point margin making the game look closer than it actually was. Credit Lovie Smith, the coaching staff and the Bucs players then for being able to put that one behind them and show up for Sunday’s game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, in which Tampa Bay blew an early ten point lead and then came back to win the game 27-24 on a Vincent Jackson touchdown with seven seconds to play.
Yet for as demoralizing as that Week 3 loss should have been for the Bucs, a quick look at Pro Football Reference actually showed that rebounding from a loss of six touchdowns or more to win the following week isn’t as rare as you might think.
Since 2000, 20 teams have lost a regular season game by 42 points or more. The team with the greatest deficit in that timeframe, the 2009 Tennessee Titans, who lost a Week 6 matchup to the Patriots 59-0, had a bye week after that particular humiliation. But of the other 19 contests with such a margin, seven of the losing teams returned to the field the next week and came away with a win.
Just three years ago, the Buccaneers were one of those teams, rebounding from a 48-3 Week 5 loss to the 49ers with a 26-20 Week 6 win over the New Orleans Saints. This year’s team should hope that this is the only precedent they follow from that squad. The 2011 group didn’t win another game that year, losing their final ten games of the season to finish with a 4-12 record.

4) Steve Smith backs up his promises

(AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
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(AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
The 35-year-old wideout had been itching to play the Carolina Panthers since March, when he promised there would be “blood and guts everywhere” if he faced his former team as a member of the Baltimore Ravens.
It wasn’t exactly a scene from Machete, but it was pretty gory in a football sense, with Baltimore winning 38-10 over Carolina to improve to 3-1. Smith finished the game with seven catches for 139 yards and two touchdowns, one of them coming on a 61-yard tipped grab and run.
While Smith’s ability to turn his anger towards the Ravens into fuel for this game isn’t surprising, his performance over the first four games in Baltimore certainly has been. He’s now made 25 catches for 429 yards and three touchdowns this season. That puts him on pace for 100 catches, 1716 yards and 12 TDs, totals Smith hasn’t approached since the 2005 season.
One other thing to note – Joe Flacco has now targeted Smith on just under 30 percent (29.7) of the team’s pass attempts in the past three games, which were all wins. If this trend continues the entire season, a guy whose salary had eclipsed his production in the eyes of his former team could end up being the most valuable player on his current one in 2014.

5) Matt Asiata? SERIOUSLY??? Matt Asiata?!?!?!

(Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports)
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(Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports)
Anyone who happened to have the displeasure of playing against the Vikings running back in fantasy football on Sunday understands the above sentiment. The third-year back from Utah, who has been sharing some of the team’s carries since Adrian Peterson was placed on the exempt list, made a bunch of fantasy owners happy with his surprising 100 multipurpose yards and three touchdowns in Minnesota’s 41-28 win over Atlanta. (His teammate Jerick McKinnon had a surprising 135 yards as well, although the lack of touchdowns didn’t make for a huge fantasy impact.)
The most frustrating thing? If he wasn’t being used by an owner who originally drafted Peterson, he was likely a waiver wire pickup getting a start as a bye week replacement for someone like Marshawn Lynch, Montee Ball, Gio Bernard or another starter with Week 4 off. And then he puts up 27 fantasy points and potentially wins your opponent the week?
Congratulations to Vikings, Asiata and those with the foresight to add him to their fantasy lineups this week on their impressive performances.

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